Introduction
Geohazards are events related to geological features
and processes that cause loss of life and severe damage to property and the
natural and built environment. The most common and destructive in Norway are
snow avalanches, clay-, debris- and rock slides, and floods, which together
caused more than 2000 deaths during the last 150 years. Statistically, about
10 large slides and avalanches are expected to occur in Norway the next
50-100 years, each with possibly 20-100 deaths, unless preventive planning
and actions are made. In addition to the loss of lives, geohazards pose a
large impact on infrastructure and the daily life in many parts of Norway. A
possible increase of extreme weather events in the next 50 years may lead to
an increased slide frequency. The project involves five different
institutions, which also includes two of the Norwegian Centres of Excellence
in Research, covering a wide range of natural and social sciences. The
proposed research will define the relationships between meteorological
conditions and geohazards based on historical records. We will produce high
resolution climate and weather scenarios for the next 50 years, and use
these in assessing the frequency and character of future geohazards events.
This will be done partly in selected case regions, covering a range of
geohazards types, geographic setting and degree of societal preparedness,
but results will also be extrapolated for Norway as a whole. An important
part of the project involves assessment of the socioeconomic consequences of
geohazards in Norway, both in the past, and in the future, under the
predicted climate scenarios. Important parameters here are cost related to
damage by natural disasters as well as to mitigation measures, ability to
learn by experience, changes in preparedness, and impact on policy makers.
Bridging gaps between natural and social sciences is an important aspect of
the project. As slides and avalanches are an important part of Norwegian
daily life, and therefore receive significant public interest, we also aim
at reporting project results thorough frequent articles in newspapers and
popular science magazines, in addition to international scientific journals.
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Objectives
There is an obvious need for an improved understanding
of the relationships between meteorological conditions and geohazards, as
well as their socio-economic consequences, to plan for mitigation measures
in order to minimise future damage and loss of lives. The present project
aims at integrating natural and social sciences with the following main
objectives:
- To establish relationships between meteorological
conditions (triggering factors) and geohazards in the form of avalanches
and slides based on past (historical) records for Norway.
- To produce high-resolution climatic scenarios for
the next 50 years, as input to assessments of the frequency and dimensions
of future geohazard events.
- To establish geohazard scenarios for the next
decades in selected regions of Norway based on the above historical
records and climate scenarios.
- To assess the socioeconomic consequences of
geohazards for the Norwegian society with reference to past experience and
develop risk-based predictions for the socioeconomic consequences of
future climate- and geohazard scenarios.
- To derive policy implications with a focus on the
society’s ability to learn by experience and increase its preparedness.
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